SkyWater (IonQ) Signs with Quantum Competitor

D-Wave and SkyWater signed a new multi-year chip manufacturing agreement following IonQ’s acquisition of SkyWater. The deal includes intellectual property protections, but its financial terms remain undisclosed. D-Wave’s previous contract included discounts through 2027 and minimum spending requirements, raising questions about what changed under the new agreement. 

This is an important development, because it involved the most prominent quantum merger of the year (SkyWater & IonQ), and represented a existential risk for D-Wave. A review of the facts: 

1. D-Wave and SkyWater signed a new multi-year chip manufacturing agreement on October 13, 286 days after their own deadline to replace the existing contract.
2. The deal includes IP protections. Financial terms were not disclosed.
3. It is unclear whether the new agreement replaces the 17th Amendment, which locked in a discounted chip rate through 2027 and required D-Wave to hit minimum annual spending targets.
4. The 17th Amendment also gave SkyWater the right to discontinue the discount if no replacement was signed by December 31, 2025. That deadline passed without a public announcement.
5. IonQ acquired SkyWater earlier this year. The FTC reviewed the deal, flagged the risk that a competitor could slow D-Wave’s chip supply or access its sensitive technical data, and split evenly. No order was issued.
6. D-Wave now manufactures its Advantage2 chips at a fab owned by a direct competitor, under contract terms the market cannot verify.

Both D-Wave’s annealing and gate-model chips depend on SkyWater, which is now owned by competitor IonQ. While a sudden manufacturing cutoff is unlikely due to existing contracts, guaranteed spending, and regulatory scrutiny, IonQ’s ownership creates potential leverage over D-Wave. 

D-Wave’s SkyWater contract has been amended 17 times since 2012. It requires minimum annual spending through 2027, while chip discounts expire at the end of that year. The amounts are undisclosed, making it difficult to assess the financial impact on D-Wave. The new agreement secures continued manufacturing, but its pricing and terms remain unclear. The bigger concern isn't losing access to SkyWater, but how much D-Wave will pay after 2027.

1. The contract has been amended 17 times since 2012, per the amendment itself and D-Wave’s 10-K exhibit list. Including changes three times within 76 days in early 2025.
2. D-Wave has to spend a minimum amount at SkyWater every year through 2027, and SkyWater bills any shortfall.
3. The dollar amounts are blacked out, so we can’t compare them to D-Wave’s $546.2M in cash.
4. That matters because D-Wave’s sales are flat at about $3.1M a quarter, and it lost about $17 for every $1 of revenue. A fixed fab cost doesn’t shrink when sales don’t grow.
5. D-Wave’s chip discount is a “one-time management concession” that ends Dec. 31, 2027.
6. The contract said a replacement deal was due by Dec. 31, 2025, or SkyWater could drop the discount.
7. The new deal came 286 days later, but we can’t confirm it is that replacement.
8. The FTC split 1-1 on rules for how IonQ must treat rivals, so none apply.
9. D-Wave is one of just eight quantum customers at a company that earned $442.1M last year.
10. A sudden cutoff was never likely, since ending the contract takes six months to a year of notice.
11. The real question is price and terms after 2027.
12. The “up to 30%” scheduling claim is the best result from one test, with no starting point or time period shared, so it can’t be checked.

However, Coherence’s take has always been that IonQ does not view D-Wave as a competitor, and it served multiple purposes for them to work out an agreement with D-Wave. IonQ has far more to gain from government goodwill, and D-Wave’s technology serves as almost zero competitive threat (as confirmed by Coherence Report’s scorecard). There are other signs that SkyWater is looking to be managed as its own business. 

The key things to watch are whether D-Wave discloses the new SkyWater contract and its pricing after 2027, and whether SkyWater adds more rival customers. Any FTC action or customer complaint could also raise new concerns about IonQ’s control of SkyWater.

D-Wave keeps its factory, which is good for production. But the owner is a competitor, the government set no rules, and the deal’s price, length, and protections are secret. We take the continuity as real and the independence as uncertain.

1. IonQ Bought a Chip Foundry, But Does it Matter?
2. IonQ / SkyWater Deal... Could Be in Danger?
3. D-Wave's Pathetic Q2: Flat Revenue, Accelerating Costs, and Fleeing Customers

1. SkyWater/D-Wave release (Business Wire) and SkyWater’s page
2. D-Wave FY2025 10-K and FY2024 10-K
3. FTC: Ferguson and Meador statements, July 31, 2026
4. IonQ and SkyWater: Jan 26 deal release, closing release, and SkyWater’s FY2025 results