Trump Signed Two Quantum EOs on June 22, But They Are Not the Same Thing
Trump Signed Two Quantum Orders. Wall Street Treated Them as One.
WHAT HAPPENED
President Trump signed two executive orders on June 22 touching the quantum computing sector. The first, EO 14413, establishes the Quantum Computer for Application Development and Discovery Science program, known as QC-ADDS, directing the Department of Energy to have at least one large-scale quantum computer built for scientific use by 2028. The order names no company, attaches no dollar figure, and starts no procurement process. Within 180 days, roughly by December 2026, the Secretary of Energy must evaluate potential private-sector partnership models and report back on cost, scope, and timing.
The second order, EO 14412, is different in kind. It mandates that every federal agency migrate its most sensitive systems to NIST-approved post-quantum cryptography on a fixed schedule: key establishment upgraded by December 31, 2030, and digital signatures by December 31, 2031. Within 90 days of the order, around September 20, 2026, the Office of Management and Budget must issue guidance on when and how agencies submit their migration plans.
Of note in attendance: Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM; Ruth Porat, president of Alphabet, and Matthew Kinsella, CEO of Infleqtion.
WHY IT MATTERS
Federal quantum policy has been mostly talk for years, so two executive orders in one day generated real excitement, and understandably so. But the market appeared to treat both orders as the same kind of event, sending quantum hardware stocks higher on news that primarily benefits a different part of the industry entirely.
The order with immediate commercial implications is EO 14412, the cryptography mandate. Agencies have hard deadlines, a regulatory compliance timeline starting this fall, and no flexibility to wait.
EO 14413, the one with the 2028 hardware target, is the order the quantum computing sector wanted. But what it actually authorizes right now is a study. The DOE has six months to figure out how to structure a potential partnership. That review won't even be complete until December 2026, and a completed review is not a contract. Any coverage framing EO 14413 as near-term bullish for a specific hardware company is describing a process that hasn't started yet as if it were an outcome.
What the Numbers Actually Show
| Element | EO 14413 (QC-ADDS) | EO 14412 (PQC Mandate) |
| Hard deadline | 2028 (build target) | Dec 31, 2030 (key establishment); Dec 31, 2031 (signatures) |
| Funding attached | None disclosed | None disclosed |
| Vendor named | None | None |
| Next concrete event | 180-day DOE evaluation report | OMB guidance (~Sept 2026) setting agency plan deadlines |
| Primary beneficiary | TBD -- hardware procurement TBD | PQC software and encryption companies |
| Revenue event timeline | Earliest 2026, and only for the review stage | Sooner, for cybersecurity vendors |
- The DOE's 180-day review runs to around December 2026, and that's just to figure out which partnership model to use, not to pick a winner yet. Any coverage suggesting a specific quantum hardware company gets near-term revenue from EO 14413 is getting ahead of the actual process.
- EO 14412 is the one with real near-term teeth. But the beneficiaries there are post-quantum cryptography and encryption companies, not qubit hardware makers.
DOE partnership review, due around December 2026. The structure of the recommendation will matter as much as the content. A single-vendor award points to a very different competitive landscape than a consortium model or a competitive bid process open to multiple hardware companies. OMB's PQC guidance and the agency plans that follow. When agencies submit their migration inventories, those filings will effectively identify which federal systems need upgrading and how much runway vendors have to compete for that work. That's the first real map of the EO 14412 opportunity. Google's posture after declining the CHIPS Act round. The company sent its president, Ruth Porat, to the signing ceremony roughly two weeks after turning down $2 billion in federal quantum funding. Watch whether Google submits a proposal once the QC-ADDS evaluation process formally opens, and what that implies about its strategic priorities.
Hardware type and who it favors. QC-ADDS describes a machine for broad scientific discovery, which points toward gate-model systems with high qubit counts and meaningful error correction.
EO 14412 is a genuine near-term policy event, but its beneficiaries are cybersecurity vendors, not quantum hardware companies. EO 14413 is a long-term positive signal for the sector that currently authorizes a study, not a purchase. The market rallied on both as if they were equivalent catalysts. The next event that actually moves the analysis forward is the DOE partnership review due in December 2026, and even that delivers a recommendation, not a revenue event. Investors pricing near-term hardware upside into this week's orders are running ahead of a procurement process that has not yet begun.
$2 Billion Industry Investment is Not As Reported - https://coherence.report/us-invests-2-billion-in-quantum-industry-d-wave/
- EO 14413 full text (White House): https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/ushering-in-the-next-frontier-of-quantum-innovation/
- EO 14412 full text (White House): https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/securing-the-nation-against-advanced-cryptographic-attacks/
- Chris Wright quote, IBM/Google presence at signing: https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2026/06/trump-signs-2-orders-prepare-us-quantum-future/414331/
- IBM Krishna statement, Wright quote: https://www.govtech.com/products/trump-executive-orders-home-in-on-useful-quantum-computing
- Google present at signing, order details: https://www.tyla.com/news/politics/trump-nobody-cares-chris-wright-493194-20260623
- 2030/2031 PQC deadlines confirmed: https://www.wiz.io/blog/white-house-post-quantum-cryptography-executive-order
- 90-day OMB guidance requirement: https://www.forrester.com/blogs/eo-14409-makes-pqc-migration-a-multi-year-operational-program-for-federal-security-leaders/
- Google's CHIPS Act quantum funding decline (June 10, ~2 weeks before signing): https://www.tipranks.com/news/why-google-googl-rejected-the-2-billion-u-s-quantum-funding-program-over-speed-concerns